去年4月23日，《湖南省“单独两孩”政策实施办法》印发，自此湖南开始实施“单独两孩”政策。今年，根据湖南省省长杜家毫指示，湖南省人民政府发展研究 开展了湖南省“单独两孩”政策实施效果评估工作。
据评估组分析，单独两孩政策出台至今年4月底，湖南因实施单独两孩政策增加的新生人口约3万人。
该报告预测，若继续实施单独两孩政策，湖南在“十三五”时期总和生育率最多为1.48，远低于人口可持续发展的总和生育率2.1的国际公认标准。
报告称，这说明继续实施“单独两孩”政策只能有限提高湖南的生育率。
该报告认为，单独两孩生育意愿低于预期。政策实施一年来，领证人数仅为单独家庭存量的四分之一，与预期的50%差距较大。此外，由于政策施行时间较短，而从领证到小孩出生需要较长时间，所以“单独两孩”政策对提高生育率贡献有限。
在湖南，公务员最想放开“两孩政策”
评估组通过在湖南省人民政府网站和一家门户网站发布调查问卷，共收集有效问卷300份。其中机关事业单位等体制内群体对全面放开两孩政策的呼声最高。
该报告指出，由于单独两孩政策只是一个过渡性的生育政策，双方都非独生子女的育龄夫妇对于全面放开两孩政策呼声日益高涨，问卷调查显示，公务员事业单位工作人员中，非独生子女的被调查者对于放开两孩生育的意愿最为强烈。
此外， 报告表示“单独两孩政”策最高不足3万的新生人口增量，主要影响2014-2017年的新生人口数据，且远远不足以弥补生育低谷带来的出生人口减少。因此，“单独两孩”政策不能有效弥补生育低谷。
该报告同时指出， “单独两孩”政策不能有效遏止老龄化加快的趋势。
希望国家尽快修改生育政策
评估报告指出，长沙、株洲、湘潭、常德、益阳、郴州、娄底等市在自评报告里明确提出，民众对于全面放开二胎的呼声很高，希望国家尽快修改生育政策，逐步放开两孩生育限制。
报告称，由于部分地区“80后”、“90后”群体的生育意愿比较低下，“70后”较高的再生育意愿受到年龄限制，上述估计可能还有所偏高。总之，全面放开二孩后，总和生育率不可能达到2，低于人口世代更替水平，更不可能造成过大的生育堆积。
报告呼吁，鉴于湖省今后十年生育旺盛期育龄妇女数将减少200万人，人口老龄化速度不断加快，及群众对普遍二孩的热烈期盼，有必要尽快出台更加宽松的生育政策。
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去年4月23日，《湖南省“单独两孩”政策实施办法》印发，自此湖南开始实施“单独两孩”政策。今年，根据湖南省省长杜家毫指示，湖南省人民政府发展研究 开展了湖南省“单独两孩”政策实施效果评估工作。
据评估组分析，单独两孩政策出台至今年4月底，湖南因实施单独两孩政策增加的新生人口约3万人。
该报告预测，若继续实施单独两孩政策，湖南在“十三五”时期总和生育率最多为1.48，远低于人口可持续发展的总和生育率2.1的国际公认标准。
报告称，这说明继续实施“单独两孩”政策只能有限提高湖南的生育率。
该报告认为，单独两孩生育意愿低于预期。政策实施一年来，领证人数仅为单独家庭存量的四分之一，与预期的50%差距较大。此外，由于政策施行时间较短，而从领证到小孩出生需要较长时间，所以“单独两孩”政策对提高生育率贡献有限。
在湖南，公务员最想放开“两孩政策”
评估组通过在湖南省人民政府网站和一家门户网站发布调查问卷，共收集有效问卷300份。其中机关事业单位等体制内群体对全面放开两孩政策的呼声最高。
该报告指出，由于单独两孩政策只是一个过渡性的生育政策，双方都非独生子女的育龄夫妇对于全面放开两孩政策呼声日益高涨，问卷调查显示，公务员事业单位工作人员中，非独生子女的被调查者对于放开两孩生育的意愿最为强烈。
此外， 报告表示“单独两孩政”策最高不足3万的新生人口增量，主要影响2014-2017年的新生人口数据，且远远不足以弥补生育低谷带来的出生人口减少。因此，“单独两孩”政策不能有效弥补生育低谷。
该报告同时指出， “单独两孩”政策不能有效遏止老龄化加快的趋势。
希望国家尽快修改生育政策
评估报告指出，长沙、株洲、湘潭、常德、益阳、郴州、娄底等市在自评报告里明确提出，民众对于全面放开二胎的呼声很高，希望国家尽快修改生育政策，逐步放开两孩生育限制。
报告称，由于部分地区“80后”、“90后”群体的生育意愿比较低下，“70后”较高的再生育意愿受到年龄限制，上述估计可能还有所偏高。总之，全面放开二孩后，总和生育率不可能达到2，低于人口世代更替水平，更不可能造成过大的生育堆积。
报告呼吁，鉴于湖省今后十年生育旺盛期育龄妇女数将减少200万人，人口老龄化速度不断加快，及群众对普遍二孩的热烈期盼，有必要尽快出台更加宽松的生育政策。
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